Commitment problems & the timing of force
Commitment problems & the timing of force
The Tunnel Opens in Six Months
Who can stop the train after the deal is signed?
A lunar freight tunnel will cut a 12-hour trip to 48 minutes. Advise Marel before a rival gains control of the shortcut, test two gate rules, and decide what a late-night warning actually supports.
Choose For Class at the start. Enter your name and, if you wish, your class or section. Finish the responses and checks to open your report.
Choose Download Class PDF in your finished report. If needed, use Print or save as PDF. Open the PDF to check your name and responses, then upload it to Canvas.
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What you can explore
- Identify how a shift in control can weaken the incentive to honor an earlier promise.
- Compare an assurance with an enforceable rule by tracing who can stop a departure.
- Distinguish a strike against a future shift in power from a strike against a specific imminent attack.
- Update advice as intelligence changes and apply the same reasoning to a new route.
Guides & downloads
What the model leaves open
The lunar case and freight figures are fictional. Use the trial to isolate control over departure, then ask what evidence a government would need about real intentions and capabilities.
AFTERWARD, THINK ABOUT
When would Ordan honor the pledge even if it still controlled the gate? What evidence would you want?
Teaching this activity Debrief, assessment & assignment draft
Bring it back to the room
- When would Ordan honor the pledge even if it still controlled the gate? What evidence would you want?
- If shared approval makes a promise credible, when might it also make a routine emergency harder to handle?
- Which change to the record would make you revise your advice about 04:00?
What to assess
Grade the causal reasoning in the cabinet memos. Use the gate prediction and trial record to diagnose where a student’s explanation diverges from the model.
Read the complete teaching guide →Syllabus description, rubric & printable companion →
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Syllabus description & discussion prompts
Syllabus description
A lunar freight tunnel will cut a 12-hour trip to 48 minutes. Advise Marel before a rival gains control of the shortcut, test two gate rules, and decide what a late-night warning actually supports. Students produce a cabinet report with two gate trials, both alert decisions, and five written responses.
Questions for a discussion board or class debrief
- When would Ordan honor the pledge even if it still controlled the gate? What evidence would you want?
- If shared approval makes a promise credible, when might it also make a routine emergency harder to handle?
- Which change to the record would make you revise your advice about 04:00?